Online shopping trade index revises annual forecast up, as consumer confidence returns to retail after summer of sport

The latest figures from the IMRG Capgemini e-Retail Sales Index have revealed a solid performance for the online retail market for September, with the Index climbing 16% year-on-year (YoY) and 11% on August – equating to British shoppers spending £6.4bn online. 

As a result, IMRG and Capgemini are now forecasting 15% growth for the fourth quarter of the year and have raised the annual growth estimate one percentage point to 14% for 2012.

Mobile growth continues to soar

Sales via mobile devices have continued to rise at a remarkable pace, with September’s figures coming in at 312% YoY. And the conversion rate of 1.9% for September was also the highest recorded to date as the importance of mobile devices in the online purchasing journey grows.

Strong YoY growth of 54% in the gifts sector indicates that shoppers are gearing up for Christmas already and stocking up early to spread the cost and benefit from summer stock discounting. Clothing sales online grew 18%, the highest YoY growth since October 2011, as autumn ranges went on sale.

YoY growth for online-only retailers continued to exceed that of multichannel retailers. However, in September the difference in growth rate fell to just 3% – a pattern the industry organisations attributed to shoppers returning to the High Street after a packed calendar of summer events.

Maximising on positive indicators

Chris Webster, head of retail consulting and technology at Capgemini, stated: “September marked the return of online retail to strong double digit growth levels and rounded off Q3 on an encouraging note with a16% year on year growth. The Queen’s Jubilee, the European Championships, the Olympics and a capricious weather pattern have all left their indelible marks on this year’s e-retail trajectory.”

He highlighted that the difference in growth rates between online-only and multichannel retailers narrowed a gap that opened up about a year ago, pointing to the upward trend in mobile conversion rate. “This indicates the steady infiltration of smart phones and tablets as a buying device now, which used to be more of a browsing tool in the past,” he added. “Online retailers should wake up to this change and include a smartphone mobile shopping application or mobile web in their multichannel offering platter.”

Tina Spooner, chief information officer at IMRG, added: “The solid Index performance in September rounds off the third quarter with 15% annual growth for the online retail sector. This is the strongest quarterly growth recorded since Q2 last year and is perhaps an indicator that overall consumer confidence is increasing.”